The implications and audiences of Netanyahu’s address to Congress

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is preparing to address, for the fourth time, a joint session of the U.S. Congress on Wednesday.

There is a strong possibility this will be the last such address for Israel’s longest-serving prime minister.

The address comes amid one of the most challenging periods in the 76-year existence of the modern State of Israel, and for Netanyahu himself.

Netanyahu has been struggling to maintain his nation’s confidence as he guides Israel through a multifront war launched by Hamas in what is without question one of the worst security failings in Israel’s history. The Oct. 7 attack, in which over 1,200 were brutally murdered, many in their homes, with thousands more injured and over 260 taken hostage.

The massacre exposed Israel’s military and intelligence agencies, and the government for ignoring both long-term and immediate warning signs of a large-scale attack. It also exposed an inability to quickly combat the Hamas terrorist army once the border with Gaza was breached, and difficulty mobilizing hundreds of thousands of troops with sufficient up-to-date equipment and battle plans. The Hamas attack was not merely a terror incident, it was a declaration of war.

Following the surprise Hamas success and Israel’s stunning failure, and with roughly 250 kidnapped Israelis, there was no choice but to respond with overwhelming force. The Iron Swords military campaign was launched.

Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Houthis in Yemen, both Iranian terror proxies like Hamas, immediately joined in to attack Israel. Hezbollah has fired over 20,000 rockets, drones and anti-tank guided missiles at Israel. The rockets have killed Israeli servicemen and civilians and have caused significant property damage. Israel has evacuated over 80,000 residents living within five kilometers (three miles) of the Lebanese border.

Houthis have fired ballistic and cruise missiles, and explosive-laden drones from Yemen, including a drone attack that exploded close to the Tel Aviv branch office of the U.S. Embassy. The Iranian-made drone killed one Israeli and left several injured. Houthis have attacked commercial vessels traveling through the Red Sea with U.S. naval vessels patrolling the waters.

While the majority of Israel’s efforts have been focused on Hamas in Gaza, the IDF has been extremely active in attacking Hezbollah by air. And for the first time, this weekend, Israel attacked fuel storage depots and an oil refinery in Yemen, in response to the deadly Tel Aviv drone attack.

Back on April 13, Israel and a coalition of militaries, including the U.S., intercepted over 300 drones, cruise and ballistic missiles fired from Iran at Israel.  Several ballistic missiles were intercepted over Israeli airspace, with as many as four missiles striking near a military airbase in the south. Israel responded with a symbolic strike within Iran, taking out Iranian missile defense systems, stopping short of escalating to a full-fledged war directly with Iran, the world’s leading state sponsor of terror.

The diplomatic battlefield

Since the war began, demonstrations against Israel have popped up in cities across the West, along with pro-Palestinian encampments on university campuses across North America. Antisemitic incidents have soared in the U.S. and Europe, while Jew-hatred has saturated social media.

While according to most polls, most Americans continue to support Israel, anti-Israel sentiment is clearly on the rise, particularly among the younger demographics. Bipartisan support for Israel continues to wane as progressive elements of the Democratic Party throw their support behind illiberal Palestinians as a liberal cause.

International bodies including the U.N. Security Council, the International Court of Justice and the International Criminal Court, continue to project that Israel is the primary source of evil in the Middle East, and possibly the world over.

As all this has been happening, and as Netanyahu leads a military and diplomatic effort to defeat Israel’s attacking enemies and maintain international support, he is maligned the world over, both at home and abroad.

Members of the longstanding Democratic establishment—including Senate Majority Leader Charles Schumer and former Senator and Democratic presidential candidate Hilary Clinton—have openly called for Netanyahu to be removed by an election. And a continuous stream of “leaks” to the press from within the White House has also berated the prime minister.

Gifted statesman

Netanyahu has often taken advantage of international addresses, at Congress and at the U.N., where he previously served as ambassador, to make Israel’s case to the world. A gifted statesman and orator, Netanyahu has a reputation for brilliantly making his country’s case.

This time, Netanyahu’s trip to Washington comes amid significant chaos, not only in Israel and the greater Middle East; but also in the U.S., where current President Joe Biden has just announced that he is dropping out of the 2024 presidential race, while former president and Republican candidate Donald Trump just survived an assassination attempt and is soaring in recent polls.

A just war

Netanyahu will use his speech to Congress, and his tentative meetings with Biden, Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris, to emphasize that Israel is fighting a just war, that it did not start, and that the war is not just the latest round of an intractable Israeli-Palestinian conflict, but rather a larger conflict funded and launched by the Islamic Republic of Iran and its terror proxies.

Netanyahu will both insist and demonstrate that Israel has been conducting the war as carefully as possible, even sometimes to Israel’s detriment. Whether Israel’s critics want to believe it or not, the IDF has been setting a new military standard for reducing civilian casualties in an urban fighting environment.

Netanyahu understands that the entire world will be paying attention to this high-stakes address, even amid other global crises. Multiple audiences will be watching closely both live and on-demand. Netanyahu is likely writing his speech specifically with several different audiences in mind.

The media

Over the years, Netanyahu has been a master of getting the media to work for him to broadcast the highlights of his speeches far and wide. This is ironic because he is known to generally distrust the media, both at home and abroad, which tend to give him more negative press than positive.

But to get the world to pay attention, and particularly those who do not watch the speech live, Netanyahu will craft parts of his speech around the goal of creating a headline and a photo opportunity, using one-liners and visual devices.

Over the years, Netanyahu has brought maps of the Middle East and a picture of a road-runner/coyote bomb on which he drew a bright red line to signal Iranian progress on its nuclear program. When he presented to the public details of an Iranian nuclear archive, lifted by the Mossad from deep inside Iran, Netanyahu delivered a press conference in front of a replica of an archive.

Of course, creating headlines and photo opportunities is only a means to an end. Media stunts in this case will only travel as far as the messages behind them.

Netanyahu also knows that Israel’s enemies, some within Congress itself, will attempt to steal the spotlight, with protests, walkouts and signage.  Netanyahu believes that his version of the story will beat that of his detractors.

The American people

A major reason that Netanyahu accepted an invitation to address a joint session of the U.S. Congress is to make Israel’s case to the American public. Reading the New York Times and other publications would lead one to believe that Israel is on the receiving end of billions in aid while offering nothing but trouble in return.

Netanyahu will reinforce the contention that Israel is among America’s best and strongest allies. Israel is among the top countries in which the overwhelming majority of its public holds America in high regard, possibly as high or even higher than many of America’s own citizens.

Israelis share these positive viewpoints even as American foreign policy in the region over the last two decades in particular has emboldened bad actors in the region. Israelis wholeheartedly believe they share common values with America. Israelis value the free market and a free press.

If wars were not forced upon it, Israelis would gladly choose peace. And if Israel had two large oceans for borders, and peaceful nations like Canada and Mexico to its north and south, Israel, like America would not be engaged in military adventures.

But more important than sentiments, Israel offers tangible assets back to America as part of a strategic alliance.  Israel provides key intelligence to the U.S. and provides real-time feedback on military systems including aircraft and missile defense. And Israelis develop solutions to key problems including patents, technology, businesses that are often bought up by major American multinationals.

They not only hate Israel; they also hate America

Netanyahu will be sure to express how grateful Israelis are for America’s longstanding bipartisan friendship and support. The last thing Israelis want is for the Jewish State to be used as a political football. Israelis have enough politics back home.

Netanyahu will simultaneously attempt to further anchor the support of Christian conservatives who have remained steadfast in their backing for Israel, as well as moderate liberals who have long been strong allies of the Jewish State. Netanyahu will try to convince isolationist Republicans that Israel is an important strategic asset that keeps American boots off the ground in the Middle East.

And Netanyahu will likely try to isolate extreme progressives who see Israel primarily through the lens of intersectionality and critical race theory, in an attempt to keep moderate liberals from drifting further to the left.

He will try to convince liberals that Israel is the most liberal state in the Middle East and one of the most liberal in the world and that the enemies of Israel that many progressives have thrown their support behind, are illiberal and oppressive fanatics.

They not only hate Israel; they also hate America.

Netanyahu will try and anchor Congressional support for Israel’s defense, in a bid to ensure that weapons systems that have been held up by the Biden administration will quickly make their way to Israel, and that replenishments for missile defense systems and artillery will be ordered and fast-tracked.

President Joe Biden

The day before the Congressional address, the prime minister is tentatively scheduled to meet with a now lame-duck president, Joe Biden, who has just announced that he will no longer pursue re-election. The meeting may depend on Biden’s recovery from COVID.

Netanyahu has a four-decades-old relationship with Biden, who as recently as last week called himself a Zionist. If this is the last meeting between the two as sitting heads of state, Netanyahu will thank Biden for his years of support, including an important visit to Israel following Oct. 7.

It is clear that Joe Biden has not been personally guiding the intricate details of U.S. foreign policy in the region, leaving that portfolio to a cast of holdovers from the Obama administration, including Secretary of State Anthony Blinken and National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan, among others.

Yet, as the world watches, Biden will likely try to demonstrate that he remains in command. And for as long as Biden is still president, he retains the last word. He may try to show Netanyahu who is the senior partner and who is the junior in the relationship.

If Biden attempts to pressure Netanyahu in a one-on-one Oval Office meeting, Netanyahu will have the benefit of his address to Congress to respond or correct any misunderstandings.

Vice President Kamala Harris

Much maligned Vice President turned Democratic frontrunner Kamala Harris is also scheduled to meet Netanyahu.

Whether or not a meeting with Biden takes place, Harris will be allowed to shine on the world stage in a one-on-one with seasoned statesman and influential world leader Netanyahu. She may use the meeting to establish pro-Israel bona fides, while also showing that she can talk tough to other heads of state.

“President Donald Trump”

Arguably, no other pair of American president and Israeli prime minister did more to strengthen Israel and transform the Middle East than Donald Trump and Netanyahu. Trump, working together with former U.S. ambassador to Israel David Friedman, boldly recognized Jerusalem as the capital of the Jewish state (to the exclusion of any other state), moved the U.S. Embassy to Jerusalem, and recognized Israeli sovereignty over the strategic Golan Heights, which is currently being pummeled by Hezbollah rockets.

Trump pulled out of the JCPOA Iran nuclear deal, withholding much-needed capital from the Islamic Republic, hampering its nuclear ambitions, and funding of terror proxies. Trump similarly defunded the Palestinian Authority, as well as the U.N. agencies that do its bidding.

Working with former secretary of state Mike Pompeo, the Trump administration recognized that Israeli settlements in the so-called “West Bank” are not illegal under international law, and do not present an obstacle to peace in the region.

(Meanwhile, members of the Biden administration refuse to visit these areas, and this week the International Court of Justice, which is simultaneously trying Israel genocide, offered an advisory ruling that settlements are illegal and must be dismantled as soon as possible.)

And perhaps most impressive of all, the Trump administration authored a complete paradigm shift in the trajectory of the Middle East and created the pathway to the end of a greater Arab-Israeli conflict by brokering the Abraham Accords agreements between Israel, Bahrain, United Arab Emirates, Morocco and Sudan. The accords likely would have grown to include other nations including Oman and Saudi Arabia had Trump remained in office.

And yet for all of the accomplishments made together by Trump and Netanyahu, the pair had a falling out. Trump has openly accused Netanyahu of refusing to participate in the targeted assassination of Iranian General Qasem Soleimani. He became sour when Netanyahu caved into immense international pressure to congratulate Biden on the election results, even as Trump had yet to concede defeat.

In both episodes, it is easy to understand why Netanyahu made the decisions he did. Certainly, Netanyahu hopes that a second Trump presidency could yield significant positive momentum for Israel, and help bring nearly a year of war in the region to a halt.

Recently, Netanyahu’s advisors have shown selections of immense praise for Trump in Netanyahu’s autobiography. A meeting between Israel’s prime minister and America’s Republican presidential nominee could go a long way to repairing the relationship.

Iran and its proxies

The formula for transforming the Middle East for good is simple to define but difficult to implement: Defeat the terrorists and their sponsors, and normalize relations with moderate actors. Israel is currently engaged in both.

Moderates and extremists alike will be watching Netanyahu’s trip to Washington and his speech to Congress closely.  They will be looking for signals of strength or weakness from Netanyahu, and they will be looking to see how resolutely Biden, Harris and Trump stand with or against Netanyahu.

A surrender by Hamas, the release of hostages and an end to fighting in and beyond Gaza could hinge on the success or failure of Netanyahu’s visit.

Iran and its proxies are gauging their next moves based on Israel’s military might and will to win, and on who they believe might win the 2024 U.S. presidential election. If they perceive strong repercussions for their malign behavior, they may enter into a period of reevaluating their paramilitary adventures. If they perceive strong pressure on Israel free of consequences, they will continue to terrorize the region.

The Saudis

The Biden Administration threw a wrench in the momentum of the Abraham Accords. The normalization agreements flew in the face of longstanding State Department assessments that the Arab-Israeli conflict could not be solved from the outside-in, but only if the Israeli-Palestinian conflict were first to end with a two-state solution.

Further, the Biden Administration isolated and maligned the Saudis over the murder of Saudi political opponent and dissident journalist Jamal Khashoggi. Even as Israel pressed the Biden administration to attempt to recover momentum, it became clear that the Saudis would not give Biden and company a major diplomatic accomplishment without paying an extraordinary price.

The Saudis will be waiting to see who wins the upcoming presidential election before deciding how to proceed.

Netanyahu’s 2015 speech 

But it should be noted that Netanyahu’s last speech to a joint session of Congress was a foundational element in the signing of the historic normalization agreements. At the time, Netanyahu greatly angered then-president Barack Obama by coming to directly oppose America’s entry into the Iran nuclear deal.

While that speech soured Netanyahu’s relationship with Democrats loyal to Obama, it sent a shockwave across the Middle East.  Here was an Israeli prime minister standing up to an American president to defend not only Israel’s existential interests, but the interests of the Saudis, the Emiratis and Bahrain.

Within moments of the speech, senior Israeli officials received calls from Middle Eastern leaders. And while it took some time, those calls led to the formation of the historic Abraham Accords.

And while Obama won a Nobel Peace Prize, with little to show for it in the years before or the years that followed, neither Trump, Netanyahu, nor the brave Arab leaders that entered into the agreements won Nobel prizes—simply because they were Trump and Netanyahu. Perhaps the pair will get another opportunity following Bibi’s 2024 speech to Congress.

Israel’s public

Perhaps Netanyahu has been maligned more at home than anywhere else. The opposition, which also includes most of Israel’s media, the Supreme Court and the upper echelons of the military and intelligence services all want Netanyahu out of office.

Anti-Netanyahu protests which gained steam during five consecutive election cycles over the past six years, and reached a crescendo during Netanyahu’s proposed judicial reforms have again taken to the streets of Tel Aviv and Jerusalem, even as the reforms have been shelved. Now protestors have tried to link up with some of the families of hostages, who blame Netanyahu for their present fate, and desperately want him to cave into Hamas demands to set their loved ones free.

Many Israelis, including longtime supporters, now wonder whether it is finally time for Netanyahu to retire. Yet, while Netanyahu’s popularity dropped to historic lows following the Oct. 7 failures, he and his Likud Party have been steadily climbing in recent polls, as chief opponent Benny Gantz’s popularity has slid.

Gantz resigned weeks ago from a unity government he joined to help prosecute the war, and most Israelis no longer see him as a viable alternative. And as many Israelis are hoping for anyone but Netanyahu, a clear candidate the opposition can rally around has yet to emerge.

The embattled prime minister certainly aims to show that he is still the most capable Israeli leader. He hopes to gain the opportunity to see the successful conclusion to the current war, and potentially the signing of further normalization agreements to cement his legacy as one of Israel’s greatest prime ministers.

While Netanyahu has steered relatively clear of public press appearances over the past several months as the war has progressed, the speech to Congress is another opportunity to try to convince Israelis, who will be closely monitoring the developments of his trip, that Bibi, for better or worse, remains Israel’s indispensable man.

Alex Traiman is CEO and Jerusalem Bureau Chief of Jewish News Syndicate.

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