‘The game has changed’: Turkish buildup on Syrian border sparks Israeli concerns
Turkey has been moving swiftly to expand its influence over Syria, with Israel being concerned by reports on Tuesday that the Turkish military is poised to launch a large-scale invasion.
Israeli soldiers in the buffer zone with Syria in a photo released on Dec. 13, 2024. Photo by IDF Spokesperson/TPS-IL
“The game has changed,” Dr Hay Eytan Cohen Yanarocak, a researcher at Tel Aviv University’s Moshe Dayan Centre, told The Press Service of Israel. “If in the past we focused on Iran’s influence in Syria, today it’s clear that Turkey has entered the vacuum left by Assad’s regime.”
Yanarocak argues that Israel has yet to fully recognise the ramifications of Assad’s downfall, emphasizing that Turkey is now replacing Iran as Syria’s dominant external actor.
For Israel, Turkey’s expanding influence presents a delicate challenge. Although Israel has long operated in Syria to curb Iranian entrenchment and Hezbollah activities, Yanarocak warns that Turkey’s growing involvement could alter the strategic landscape.
While Turkish influence is unlikely to mirror Iran’s overt hostility toward Israel, Ankara’s growing footprint raises concerns about direct clashes.
“Turkey’s modus operandi in Syria resembles its approach in Libya,” Yanarocak said, drawing parallels to Ankara’s interventions in Libya and Azerbaijan. He said President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s immediate goals include eliminating Kurdish military presence along the Turkey-Syria border, particularly in cities like Kobani and Ayn Issa.
On Tuesday, The Wall St. Journal, citing senior U.S. officials, reported that Turkish commandos, artillery units, and allied militias are massing on the border near Kobani, a Kurdish-majority stronghold. The buildup echoes Turkey’s 2019 invasion of northeastern Syria, which displaced hundreds of thousands of civilians and saw significant territorial gains for Turkish-backed forces.
Ankara views the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) as an extension of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), a group it considers a terrorist organization, Yanarocak explained. Erdogan has consistently vowed to eliminate Kurdish military presence along his country’s southern border.
Yanarocak cautioned against public Israeli support for the Kurds, suggesting it could backfire diplomatically.
“Israel must focus on its own interests along the Golan Heights and Lebanon, while avoiding unnecessary provocations with Turkey,” he argued. “To avoid unintended clashes, Israel must establish clear channels of communication with Turkey, much like it did with Russia to coordinate operations in Syria.”
He pointed to comments by Turkish Defense Minister Yasar Guler on Sunday signaling Ankara’s readiness to cooperate militarily with the Syrian regime and sell advanced weaponry as an example of Turkey solidifying its grasp over Syria.
Despite deteriorating relations between Israeli and Turkish leaders, Yanarocak remains adamant that dialogue is essential. He called for quiet diplomacy via Israel’s Mossad and Turkey’s intelligence agencies. “We cannot afford to let tensions escalate unchecked,” he said.
Israel relations with Turkey have been strained by the war with Hamas. Erdogan has frequently accused Israel of “war crimes” and “genocide.” In July, Erdogan threatened to directly attack Israel, saying, “We must be very strong so that Israel can’t do these ridiculous things to Palestine. Just like we entered Karabakh, just like we entered Libya, we might do similar to them.”
Yanarocak did not rule it out the possibility of direct clashes between Israeli and Turkish forces in Syria.
“If Turkish forces move southward and come into proximity with Israeli operations or allies, the potential for unintended confrontations will rise dramatically,” he said.
“The skies are the limit for how far this situation could deteriorate,” Yanarocak warned. “It’s time to pay attention.”
