The Abraham Alliance

Nobody gives a speech like Prime Minister Netanyahu. His address to the US Joint Houses was exceptional.

High on rhetoric and emotion and largely well received.

Notwithstanding some notable absentees, it was a tour de force.

Whilst his 2015 address to Congress during the tenure of President Obama was seen as partisan and an intrusion into domestic US politics, Netanyahu managed to keep this speech and the visit generally, on a more even keel.

Trump’s record on Israel when in office was very positive, including the really transformational Abraham Accords.

In 2020, Trump produced the Jared Kushner-inspired Trump Peace plan and map, which envisioned a version of the two-state solution that took into account Israel’s security needs in the Jordan Valley.

This plan was accepted by Netanyahu and rejected by Mahmoud Abbas who, as well, was still smarting from the 2017 Trump recognition of Jerusalem as Israel’s capital.

With Trump, everything is personal.

Despite all the policy positives of Trump’s term, there had been little or no contact between Netanyahu and Trump since Netanyahu formally congratulated President Biden on his 2020 election win.

Trump was scathing of Netanyahu then and also more recently, publicly blaming Netanyahu for Israel’s security failures in October.

So, it was somewhat risky and yet appropriate, notwithstanding some policy hiccups, that in last week’s meeting with Biden, and prior to meeting with Trump, Netanyahu thanked Biden and praised him saying, “From a proud Israeli Zionist to a proud Irish American Zionist, I want to thank you for fifty years of public service and fifty years of support for the State of Israel.”

It is unlikely that we will see any future American Democratic leader with such a genuine connection to Israel and the Jewish People.

Despite the past few years of frostiness and Netanyahu’s praise of Biden, the meeting that followed with ex and possible future President Trump, could not have been friendlier or more positive.

In April 2021, still smarting from Netanyahu’s congratulations to Biden on winning the presidency, Trump had praised Abbas.

“I thought he was great,” Trump said about Abbas. “He was almost like a father. He couldn’t have been nicer. I thought he wanted to make a deal more than Netanyahu.”

Leading up to this meeting, Abbas, had written a letter to Trump expressing his outrage in the wake of the attempted assassination and in the definition of chutzpa, coming from the master of pay to slay terrorism, wrote, “Acts of violence must not have a place in a world of law and order.”

Trump responded to Abbas with a handwritten note, “Mahmoud, so nice. Thank you. Everything will be good. Best wishes. Donald Trump.”

On his Truth Social platform Trump also wrote; “Looking forward to seeing Bibi Netanyahu on Friday, and even more forward to achieving Peace in the Middle East!”

The most substantive concept within Netanyahu’s speech was to try and turn the Abraham Accords into the Abraham Alliance. A joint coalition against Iran’s murderous aggression.

Importantly, highlighting that Israel is the front line of the world’s defence against Iranian desires.

For the past two decades, Israel’s strategy has been to ‘manage and contain’ the situation. That is, status quo.

Israel’s allies understand and generally support what they perceive as ‘defensive’ Israeli action and oppose their perception of ‘offensive’ action, whether that means in terms of weapons supply, or diplomatic pressures.

However, both the current Israeli leadership and Israel’s allies, have become used to the idea that Israel can or should absorb even a very high level of damage and distress, generally only responding in a controlled manner and seeking to ‘avoid escalation.’

So much so, that this has moved on to now being an expectation.

The result is that when escalation occurs, as in the current Gazan situation, it is not the perpetrator that is blamed, but the victim – for responding.

This is demonstrated once again after the tragic murder by Hezbollah of the 12 children in the Druze village of Majdal Shams on the Golan Heights.

With a limited strike on the Hezbollah terrorist responsible for the murders and everyone urging ‘restraint,’ Israel too is sending messages that it is trying to find an appropriate proportionate response, without escalation into a full-scale war.

An interesting positive arose from another Trump initiative when in 2019, he recognised the Golan Heights as part of Israel. Controversial at the time, but now apparently accepted as bipartisan US policy.

In this past week, representatives of the US National Security Council and Kamala Harris’ own national security adviser, both condemned the horrific attack “in northern Israel” and when John Kirby was asked if the Biden administration considered the Golan part of Israel. He replied, “Yes.”

Rightly or wrongly, Netanyahu’s aim of a grand alliance to deal with Iran, falters around the perceived need of Western allies and indeed Arab allies or potential allies, including Saudi Arabia, to show something they can call progress, on the Palestinian front.

Exactly what or how much, remains to be tested.

October 7 demonstrated once and for all, that Iran and her proxies’ ongoing aim is simple.

The destruction of Israel.

Not about how big or small Israel should be, but that it not be.

Not about 1967, but about 1947.

Not about a Palestinian state, but about the elimination of the Jewish state.

Full stop.

The fact that Israel’s allies do not see this, or truly internalise it, is Israel’s biggest public relations failure.

Neither Netanyahu’s speech, nor his meetings, were able to change this reality.

Prior to Netanyahu leaving for the US, the Israeli Knesset passed a resolution by 68 to 9 against the establishment of a Palestinian state west of the Jordan river as it would be an “existential danger to the State of Israel and its citizens and would perpetuate the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and further destabilise the region.”

This was supported by some members of the opposition, including Benny Gantz.

True as that is, the resolution was declarative and non-binding.

Netanyahu, who blocked a similar resolution in February, was not even present for this vote.

One of the terrible ironies of today is that whilst the current Israeli government is perceived as being right wing and expansionist, during its tenure, Israel in a real sense has actually contracted in size, to the extent that its residents have been displaced internally, both from the south and the north.

Israel’s sovereignty has been compromised.

Declarative statements are fine, but harder decisions about the future need to be made.

Biden, unburdened from having to concentrate on re-election, Trump showing he still believes himself to be a deal maker in the Middle East, and Harris looking to be more appealing to the Democrats’ left wing complicate the picture further.

Ultimately however, it still comes back to the choices Israel makes and the Israeli people’s determination to shape the future.

Am Yisrael Chai