Polarized society raised probability of October 7 attack
Seventy-two per cent of Israelis believe internal divisions over judicial reform increased the likelihood of Hamas’s October 7 attack, according to a survey released on Thursday.
Israelis demonstrate in Tel Aviv against the government’s judicial overhaul initiative on March 25, 2023. Photo by Gideon Markowicz/TPS
The survey’s release comes as Israelis grapple with the deeply divisive issue of army conscription for yeshiva students.
The survey, conducted by Bar-Ilan University’s Menomadin Center for Jewish and Democratic Law, questioned 1,600 Jews and 400 Israeli Arabs in January. According to the findings, 72% believed that internal divisions over the government’s controversial judicial reform initiative raised the probability of the attack.
“The majority of Israeli society is willing to reach a consensus, recognizing that societal divisions were a significant factor leading to the October 7 events. While emotional gaps still pose challenges to agreement, there’s a growing understanding that finding common ground is essential for advancing the nation,” Menomadin Center director Prof. Shahar Lifshitz.
The Bar-Ilan survey found that 41% labelled the government as the most divisive factor, while the Supreme Court was ranked the least divisive at 25%.
The now-suspended initiative sought to change the way judges are appointed and removed, give the Knesset the ability to override certain High Court rulings, change the way legal advisors are appointed to government ministries, and restrict judges’ use of the “reasonableness” standard.
Its supporters say they want to end years of judicial overreach while opponents describe the proposals as anti-democratic.
The Menomadin Center found a split in optimism, with 52% believing broad agreements can be reached between the Israeli Right and Left, 50% believing broad agreements can be reached between the religious and secular communities, and 51% believing broad agreements can be reached regarding the status of the Supreme Court.
In comparison, a similar poll conducted by the Menomadin Center in May 2023 showed lower percentages across these categories.
Although the judicial overhaul is off the agenda, Israeli society’s wartime cohesion will be tested after the High Court of Justice on Tuesday ordered the government to begin conscripting yeshiva students.
Military service is compulsory for all Israeli citizens. However, Israel’s first Prime Minister, David Ben-Gurion, and the country’s leading rabbis agreed to a status quo that deferred military service for Orthodox men studying in yeshivot or religious institutions. At the time, no more than several hundred men were studying in yeshivot.
However, the Orthodox community has grown significantly since Israel’s founding. In January 2023, the Central Bureau of Statistics reported that Haredim are Israel’s fastest-growing community and projected it would constitute 16% of the population by the end of the decade. According to the Israel Democracy Institute, the number of yeshiva students exceeded 138,000 in 2021.
That demographic growth has fueled passionate debates about “sharing the burden” of military service, the status of religious study in a Jewish society, and Haredi integration.
The war against Hamas, now in its eighth month, has stretched the army’s manpower needs, sharpening the national debate. The Press Service of Israel found that Haredi attitudes towards military service have softened since Hamas’s October 7 attacks.
“Our strength is in our unity,” said Bar-Ilan University CEO and Deputy President Zohar Yinon. “Shimon Peres said that anger is not a plan of action. This is truer than ever and an inspiration to all parts of society in Israel, where there should be a place for everyone. We have an obligation to do this for our students, especially those in the reserves.”
