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Peter Lerner: “I believe the IDF failed on three different levels”
July 19, 2024 by J-Wire News Service
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Lt. Col. Peter Lerner, currently director general of the international division of Israel’s General Federation of Labor and a former IDF spokesman (2015-2019) – who returned to the role for several months after October 7 – addressed an Australia/Israel & Jewish Affairs Council (AIJAC) media briefing this week on the leadup to and conduct of the current war.
Speaking about the pre-October 7 period, Lerner said, “I believe the IDF failed on three different levels.”
Lt. Col. Peter Lerner
According to Lerner, strategically, Israel believed Hamas did not want a war; operationally, the army failed to prepare for such an eventuality despite intelligence warnings; and tactically, the IDF failed to protect the population once the attack was unfolding. The main difference between this war and Israel’s previous wars is the explicit targeting and suffering of Israel’s civilian population, he added.
Lerner described his personal experience on October 7, which galvanised him to rejoin the IDF, and gave an in-depth description of the different elements of the war to date.
“We have this constant reality where we’re trying to advance to achieve our military goals and the world is trying to hold us back,” Lerner explained.
Offering an example of this in practice, he said every time Israel attempted to evacuate an area before an operation, the international community insisted it was impossible. Yet Israel has successfully done this multiple times.
“Effectively, we have dismantled and destroyed Hamas’ organised fighting capability,” he asserted, detailing all the senior commanders and officials killed as well as the serious casualties suffered among the rank and file, which, when factoring in those wounded and detained accounts for more than half of Hamas’ fighting force. “There is no doubt there will be a military victory,” he said, although decentralised cells will continue to fight. Meanwhile, relative to expectations, IDF casualties have been very low, he said.
Lerner also discussed Hamas’ cynical use of human shields and civilian infrastructure, and how difficult a challenge this is to overcome in terms of civilian harm and consequent international condemnation. “All of the civilian arena in [Hamas’] terms would be the equivalent of Israel’s Iron Dome.” However, Lerner emphasised, that by contrast “the IDF has gone to unprecedented lengths in order to spare civilian life.”
The outcome of the war “needs to be a Gaza Strip that Hamas does not control,” Lerner said.
Insisting that military pressure is vital towards this goal and the release of the hostages – the most important priority according to Lerner – a clear political vision that could lead to peace and a new security reality must accompany it, he argued.
In Lerner’s view, the Israeli Government’s inability to articulate a “day-after” vision has partially contributed to the loss of support for the campaign internationally. This lack of defined goals is something he repeatedly stressed must be addressed.
“A war with Hezbollah, I believe, is inevitable,” he lamented, though not necessarily any time soon. However, he said, given the continued displacement of tens of thousands of Israelis and the unsustainable security threat in the north, the war will likely eventually take place.
Lerner also discussed the role of Iran and Qatar, TikTok, campus antisemitism, Egypt, the Palestinian Authority and other external and domestic political factors related to the war and its outcomes.
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