Israeli Election 2022: Winners and Losers

 Email this story

Print

2 Comments

Despite near parity between the two opposing political camps in terms of votes cast (2,360,757 to the right-wing religious alliance and 2,330,464 votes for the “anti-Netanyahu block”) the Netanyahu-led bloc of Likud, Religious Zionism, Shas and United Torah Judaism achieved 64 seats and a clear majority.

Danny Hochberg

There is a small chance that Netanyahu may also try and negotiate an alliance with some or all of the Gantz-led National Unity party, perhaps even with Ra’am, the Islamist Party headed by Mansour Abbas. The latter is an unlikely scenario, as it is anathema to the religious parties and the former is unlikely due to the antipathy between the leaders of the National Unity Party and Netanyahu.

The obvious coalition of Likud and the religious right will be challenging for Netanyahu to manage. His partners are an amalgam of conservative parties who have expressed strong views on everything from LGBTQI rights to access to the Temple Mount and the status of the Supreme Court.

Presented below are some of the winners and losers of the 2022 election in Israel:

Winner: Benjamin Netanyahu: The mercurial politician has once again returned to the centre of Israeli politics. This election will be particularly significant as he is fighting several corruption trials, and incumbency may allow him to avoid prosecution via some form of immunity.

Loser: The previous coalition: Despite performing strongly in Government, many of their initiatives required at least a further year in office to achieve results. The anti-Netanyahu stand that bound them was not enough to keep them together. Naphtali Bennet, the Prime Minister that led the coalition was an early casualty, choosing not to seek re-election.

Winner: Religious Zionism (RZP): RZP head Bezalel Smotrich ran in the list with Otzma Yehudit leader and extreme right candidate Itamar Ben-Gvir. With a combined 14 seats, making it the third-largest party, they will have a prodigious influence, dramatically affecting the character and policies of the incoming government.

Loser: Meretz (Left-Wing Zionist Party) , Balad (Arab Nationalist Party), Jewish Home (Right wing party lead by former Yamina co-leader Ayelet Shaked): All parties previously in the Knesset, they all failed to pass the electoral threshold of 3.25%.

Winner: Security: There was a strong perception, particularly with the increase in violence in the West Bank and Jewish-Arab rioting within Israel post the last conflict in Gaza, that the outgoing Government was weak on security. Ben-Gvir reportedly said he would request being appointed the interior minister in a ruling coalition, which would make him responsible for Israel’s police and prison service. The Jerusalem Post reported that he said his priorities would include changing the rules of engagement for police and soldiers, reducing terrorists’ rights in jails, and allowing anyone with basic combat training to carry a weapon.

Loser: Iran and Lebanon: Netanyahu will surely continue his staunch opposition to U.S. efforts to re-join JCPOA, even as indirect talks between American and Iranian officials have effectively ceased. He has also implied that he intends to nullify the recently signed maritime agreement between Israel and Lebanon, which protects both countries interest in the offshore gas fields.

Winner: Haredi Community: Locked out of the previous coalition, the Haredi parties (United Torah Judaism), and Shas, are back in Government. This will likely result in a rolling back of initiatives such as compulsory secular education, army service and kashrut and conversion initiatives, as well as an increase to financial support. On the flip side, this will further entrench the economic and social gap between them and the rest of Israeli society.

Loser: Religion and State: The Religious Zionist Party have a very conservative and, at times, extreme agenda to “strengthen Israel’s Jewish character.” This will not only include rolling back some of the initiatives of the previous coalition, but may also include amending the Law of Return, transport on Shabbat, conversions, and Kashrut.

Winner: Political Stability: A clear majority and a coherent coalition of like-minded partners will encourage a more stable government (Particularly after the instability of the previous coalition). Having said this, there will be challenges for the new government, particularly around maintaining discipline in policy and communication.

Loser: Pluralism: The Jewish character that the RZP is looking to promote in Israel is at times even more extreme than the ultra-Orthodox. They intend to strengthen the Chief Rabbinate, cancel the Kotel deal, then distance the Reform and Conservative movements in Israel and try to freeze the small amount of funds that they have received to date.

Loser: International and Diaspora Relations: Both the White House and senior American Jewish figures have stressed that they won’t meet with Ben-Gvir if he becomes a minister. Many American, British, and other Jewish organizations have said off the record that they would not only have a difficult time meeting with ministers from this party, but they will also be uncomfortable with accepting this type of government at all.

Loser: The Rule of Law: Proposed changes to the selection of Judges and powers of the Supreme Court. In recent years, court rulings regarding land ownership in the West Bank, civil marriage, migrants and asylum seekers, ultra-Orthodox enlistment, and more have all generated public debate and political tension. In a personal win for Netanyahu, Smotrich announced that his party would seek to abolish the crime of “fraud and breach of trust,” which Netanyahu is facing in his ongoing trial and grant immunity from prosecution to prime ministers, ministers and MKs. These potential changes are amongst the most consequential results of the election and have the potential to disrupt the fine balance in many parts of Israeli and Palestinian society.

Loser: Many of Israel’s “tribes”: Israeli Arabs, LGBTQI+, Reform and Conservative Jews, Bedouin, Secular Jews and many others will feel distinctly threatened by the Religious Zionist Party’s vision for Israel, and its intention to implement it. Netanyahu’s challenge will be to moderate this as much as possible without causing a political crisis. To be fair, the success of the RZP can partly be attributed to the policies of the previous coalition which incensed this section of Israeli society and resulted in the strong result for them.

Loser: Peace: This is a perennial loser that seems to fall into the category no matter the makeup of the Government. The previous Government’s broad ideological spread precluded any discussion around a solution for the Palestinian people. The new government is likely to place further roadblocks and potentially lead to an escalation of violence.

Whether the negatives outweigh the positives depends on each of our personal disposition, ideological outlook, and political orientation. Regardless, Israel will continue to face many challenges both internally and externally, and the importance of stability and unity combined with strong leadership will be needed to guide the nation in what has become a divisive and dangerous world.

Daniel Hochberg is on the committees of a number of NSW communal organisations.