INTO THE FRAY: Azerbaijan: Augmenting the Abraham Accords

The Abraham Accords were the greatest foreign policy accomplishment of Trump’s first administration; he has made it clear that his new administration will seek to expand them- Forbes, March 8, 2025.

Two recent media reports underscored the emerging international stature of the Caucasian republic of Azerbaijan and its ties to Israel.

The first related to the growing involvement of Azerbaijan’s State Oil Company (SOCAR) in Israel’s energy sector, entailing SOCAR’s first drilling operations outside of Azerbaijan.

The second related to a visit by senior Trump envoy Steve Witkoff in Azerbaijan. This took place after endorsement by both PM Netanyahu and a group of prominent rabbis. The rabbis, including the founder of the Simon Wiesenthal Center, urged including Azerbaijan in the Abraham Accords framework and for the bolstering of a trilateral alliance between Washington, Jerusalem, and Baku.

Significantly, some months ago, the value of such an axis was raised in a previous column of mine, and recognition of its merits, then enumerated, appears to be growing.

Background: Truth is stranger than fiction?

Arguably, one of the most fundamental traits of international relations is its inherent uncertainty. Indeed, it is a field where today’s truth is often stranger than yesterday’s fiction.

To illustrate the point, consider anyone, in the early 1980s, suggesting that:

• Within less than a decade-and-half, the mighty USSR would disintegrate;
• The Warsaw Pact, once a formidable alliance confronting NATO, would crumble, with some of its members even joining the ranks of erstwhile foes as part of NATO;
Then-impoverished nations, such as China and India, would become industrial and commercial powerhouses, with the former beginning to challenge America’s global economic hegemony;
• There would be a massive shift of industry and commerce to Asia from the West.

Undoubtedly, any such far-sighted prophet would have been dismissed as totally out of touch with reality – if not as borderline deranged.

But that is precisely what transpired, with the world today far closer to the predictions of some outcast eccentric than that of the adherents of the then-prevailing conventional wisdom.

Burgeoning bilateral bonds

Interestingly, the breakup of the USSR gave rise to another unpredicted event of far-reaching strategic impact. This involves a burgeoning strategic axis between former Soviet republic, Azerbaijan and Israel, which for decades was locked in bitter hostility with the USSR.

The relationship between Azerbaijan and Israel began in 1992, soon after Azerbaijan attained independence from the USSR, when the two countries set up diplomatic ties. The relations continued to strengthen, and in March 2023, Baku opened its embassy in Israel, formalizing three decades of diplomatic ties between the countries.

Since the 1990s, Azerbaijan has played a considerable role in bolstering Israel’s security and enhancing its access to energy. Baku reportedly supplies up to 60% of Israel’s gasoline consumption. Additionally, both countries maintain strong cooperation in defense, intelligence, and trade.

During the 2023 Israel-Hamas conflict, Azerbaijan was reportedly the only Muslim-majority country supporting Israel. Despite pressure from other Islamic nations, the Azerbaijani leadership maintained its strategic partnership with the Jewish state. Indeed, after the October 7 attacks, Azerbaijan citizens gathered around the Israeli Embassy in Baku, expressing support and sympathy with flowers and memorial candles.

Azerbaijan and the Jews: Warm external and benign internal relations

Azerbaijan’s warm relations with the Jewish state are mirrored in a generally benign relationship with its Jewish community in the country. Israel’s Ambassador to Baku recently remarked: “Jews in Azerbaijan have lived in harmony and tolerance with the rest of society for centuries.” Indeed, at a recent special session of US Congress, the rabbi of Baku’s Sephardic community declared that “Jews in Azerbaijan have never encountered antisemitism. The government considers any threat to Jews as a threat to national stability”. He went on to emphasize that in Azerbaijan, Jews can walk the streets freely, displaying their Jewishness without fear.

Just prior to the murderous October 7th attack, an article based on an earlier interview with Israel’s ambassador noted that Azerbaijan is home to the largest Jewish community in the Muslim-majority world and a bastion of safety for Jews, with hardly any sign of antisemitism. As opposed to numerous other countries–even in the West–there is no need for security details at synagogues and Jewish schools.

Augmenting the Abraham Accords

In light of the foregoing analysis, it is hardly surprising that a growing number of voices are calling for widening the framework of the Abraham Accords to include Azerbaijan. Indeed, it is not easy to identify any persuasive argument to oppose such a proposal.

After all, as a recent Forbes article observed: “The Abraham Accords, the normalization of relations between Israel and several majority Muslim states, [were] the greatest foreign policy accomplishment of Donald J. Trump’s first administration. As his second term takes off, the president has made it clear that his administration will seek an expansion of this groundbreaking framework.”

It continues: “One Muslim-majority country that already has a longstanding partnership with Israel and is an obvious candidate to join the Accords framework is Azerbaijan “.

In similar vein, an Atlantic Council piece urged adjoining Azerbaijan to the Abraham Accords, even proposing holding an Abraham Accords summit in Baku.

It concludes, stating: “Should the United States take the same approach as Israel and deepen its diplomatic, economic, and security ties with Azerbaijan, it may reap similar geopolitical rewards.”

Of course, should such an initiative bear fruit, it would comprise a daunting—even ominous development for Iran, a menacing common adversary not only for the US, Azerbaijan, Israel, but also for other members of the Abraham Accords—especially in the Gulf and the Arabian Peninsula.

Archetypal positive-sum game

In recent decades, it is fair to state that Israel’s foreign policy has—to be charitable—been often defective. But when it comes to the decision to initiate and cultivate the relationship with Azerbaijan, Israel’s policy makers must be commended for laudable foresight and the formulation of what is emerging as an archetypal positive sum game for all involved.