Hezbollah expanding range of barrages to unevacuated communities
Hezbollah rocket barrages on northern Israel are expanding in range, reaching deeper into Israel to unevacuated communities, a researcher warns.
The northern Israeli coastal town of Nahariya on June 17, 2024. Photo by Yoav Dudkevitch/TPS-IL
“We have seen a significant increase in the intensity and scope of attacks on non-evacuated areas,” Dana Polak, a researcher at the Alma Research and Education Centre, told The Press Service of Israel.
“Initially, these attacks constituted a small percentage of the overall strikes, but their frequency has been steadily rising,” she said.
Recent data reveals a troubling increase in the frequency and intensity of strikes on non-evacuated areas beyond a 5-kilometer radius from the Israel-Lebanon border. Safed in the Galilee, the coastal cities of Nahariya and Akko, and Golan communities, among others, have experienced a surge in attacks forcing residents to seek shelter.
According to Polak, 94.3% of the attacks occur within a 5-kilometer range, while 5.7% target areas beyond this range. In October, when Hezbollah first began launching rockets and drones, only three barrages went beyond the 5 km. However, in June, 27 barrages reached non-evacuated areas.
She explained that attacks on non-evacuated areas tend to involve a larger volume of rockets lacking precision, making them more dangerous.
“In far-range attacks, they use statistical weaponry, which is not precise when it comes to rockets, and Hezbollah fires a much larger quantity. It could be dozens of rockets in one attack, or even hundreds, as we have seen this month. So, when we talk about the number of incidents in June, it was 27 attacks, not 27 rockets fired,” Polak explained.
“The inaccurate weaponry increases the impact on civilians in non-evacuated areas. For example, Hezbollah fired at a base in the Golan Heights, but the rockets actually landed outside the base, resulting in the deaths of a couple, Noa and Nir Baranes, who were driving on the road,” Polak said.
Polak’s analysis is based on openly available information, including Hezbollah’s claims of responsibility, IDF spokesperson statements, and Israeli media reports. Her data focuses exclusively on ground strikes and does not account for the interception of drones, some of which are intercepted outside of Israeli territory.
The primary drivers for Hezbollah’s expanding the range of its barrages are Israeli airstrikes that have eliminated numerous high-ranking Hezbollah figures.
“For Hezbollah, the ‘equation of pain’ is straightforward,” Polak explained to TPS-IL. “The more pain they suffer from IDF strikes, the stronger their response attempts to be. Their reactions are not necessarily aimed at deterring Israel but are more about showing their home audience that they are retaliating.”
Indeed, Hezbollah’s leader Hassan Nasrallah threatened to “launch missiles at settlements that were not previously targeted,” during a speech on Wednesday.
Polak explained it as an attempt to deter Israel and demonstrate to his base that Hezbollah remains strong.
“Not all of Hezbollah’s attacks are in response to IDF activities in Lebanon. They initiated this war and they continue to strike Israeli territory daily without prior IDF attacks,” Polak told TPS-IL.
“It’s important to understand that right now, we are in a limited war. If a full-scale war with Hezbollah occurs, it will be a completely different event in terms of the weapons used, additional participants from Hezbollah’s side, and other fronts that might open, which we are already partially seeing today, like Iraq and Yemen,” she said.
Around 60,000 Israelis living near the Lebanese border were forced to evacuate in October when Hezbollah terror organization began daily rocket and drone attacks. Leaders of the Iran-backed terror group have said they will continue the attacks to prevent Israelis from returning to their homes. The attacks have killed 12 civilians and 18 soldiers.
Israeli officials have been calling for Hezbollah to be disarmed and removed from southern Lebanon in accordance with UN Security Council resolution 1701, which ended the 2006 Second Lebanon War.
