After six months of war, how have Arab perceptions of Israel changed?
Six months into war with Hamas, Israel is both on the brink of either a multi-front war or establishing diplomatic relations with more Arab countries.
File photo: Two Israeli F-35 “Adir” jets fly in formation. Credit: U.S. Air Force/1st Lt. Erik D. Anthony.
Israel is committed to specific war goals, but as long as the hostages are still being held captive, Hamas forces remain in Gaza and Yahya Sinwar is at large, Iran and its proxies will continue to play for time, betting on the West to impose a ceasefire.
On one hand, the Arabs credit Israel for fighting alone against the Iranian axis of Hamas, Hezbollah, Houthis, Iraqi militias and the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps. Israel is also accumulating an impressive series of intelligence achievements.
But the Arabs also perceive Israel as fighting for its existence and as a country without red lines. Despite killing 12,000 terrorists and carrying out 32,000 airstrikes, Hamas and Hezbollah have fired a combined 12,200 rockets since October 7 according to figures released by the Israel Defense Forces on Sunday.
And Hezbollah is estimated to have tens of thousands more.
Both the moderate Arab states and Iran and its allies have noted a fraying ties between Jerusalem and Washington. This deteriorating relationship is mainly expressed in American threats to reassess policy, halt arms shipments, rhetoric over humanitarian aid, and UN Security Council resolution which passed without a US veto.
At the same time, they also perceive American weakness with US Secretary of State Antony Blinken having made six high-profile visits to the Middle East without any significant results towards ending the war or freeing captives.
The combination of friction between the allies and Washington’s weakness has emboldened Hamas to harden its stance in hostage negotiations.
Among Palestinians in both Gaza and Palestinian Authority, the war burns deeply in the consciousness as “Nakba 2023.” The number of Palestinians killed has not been independently verified, but they accept Hamas figures of over 33.000, a number which Israel and other experts dismiss as unreliable.
Israel estimates that Hamas lost 75% of its military strength and significant ability to control Gaza’s governing institutions. Hamas agreed to a temporary ceasefire and hostage release in November, not only to prevent Israel from invading central Gaza and Khan Yunis, but to get Israeli forces out of the Shifa Hospital, where the terror group tried to base its administrative control.
But a recent raid on the Shifa compound thwarted Hamas’s attempts to renew its control over Gaza. This revealed one of Hamas’s weak points and indicates a course of action for Israel to continue weakening the terror group.
Meanwhile, the Palestinian Authority is trying position itself as a viable government for post-war Gaza that will fit into US President Joe Biden’s vision of a reformed institution.
The agenda includes cutting down the PA’s bloated and inefficient bureaucracy, replacing diplomats representing the PA abroad, and initiating an internal self-investigation mechanism within the Palestinian Preventive Security. It also includes indirect “pay-for-slay” funding as a workaround for Israeli and American demands to end the stipends.
However, nobody in Ramallah believes Abbas will see the reforms through. A March survey by the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research found 81% of the Palestinians polled in Judea, Samaria and Gaza dissatisfied with Abbas’s leadership and 84% saying they want him to resign.
In Lebanon, Israel has signaled that it is ready for a campaign against Hezbollah with airstrikes on the terror group’s facilities as far north as Baalbek, and eliminating Hamas, Hezbollah and Iranian commanders there and in Syria. Israel’s aggressive strikes have forced Hezbollah leader Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah to redraw his red lines time and again.
Arab publications report that Nasrallah pledged to his Iranian patrons not to drag Tehran into an all-out regional war. Other Arab reports go further, claiming that Iran and the US reached an understanding in January against widening the war. But a series of threats from Tehran leave no doubt that Iran will respond to a recent airstrike on its embassy in Damascus widely attributed to Israel.
And there is one more number that appears well in the Arab coverage of Israel’s situation: 100,000 demonstrators who have returned to the streets of Tel Aviv to voice their opposition to the Israeli government.
