A Kiwi in Kibbutz Kfar Aza

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The man with the microphone explains that Shavout is an agricultural festival where we celebrate the crops harvested throughout the previous year. He tells us that the most important crop is not the apples, the wheat or the avocados. The harvest most cherished is the children born into the community during the past 12 months…writes David Kepes.

David Kepes

And so he invites the parents and grandparents of Kfar Aza to join him on the flower-adorned stage with infants in their arms. One after the other the newborns and their parents are introduced to the joyful community. One after the other the names of parents and grandparents are followed by the tragic words; “of blessed memory”. Israel 2024.

I have spent the last five weeks searching for signs of hope in this scarred landscape. Those few who have managed to portray a sustainable future for this tiny nation pin their hopes variously on; leadership change, military might, economic success, technological superiority or divine intervention. Their optimism is overwhelmingly outweighed by the majority, who are unable to see beyond internal divisions, incompetent leadership, an ever-strengthening enemy, the rise of extremism on all sides, impending economic collapse and geopolitical headwinds. Optimists and pessimists both echo the ubiquitous refrain, “we have no other country”. I have listened, questioned and preached to anyone willing to indulge my curiosity, there are 9 million opinions in this tiny land.

There are, however, some consistent themes;

-Netanyahu must go. A random conspiracy theorist was the lone voice to express support for Bibi. Everyone else that I canvassed, whether on the right or left of the spectrum, described his politics as divisive and destructive. There is wide consensus that he has weakened the public service and the military, further, that he bears ultimate responsibility for the failings of 7/10.

-The current territorial concessions are disastrous. There is widespread dismay at the abandonment of the Upper Galilee and the Otef (Gaza envelope). Never in Israel’s history has such a substantial area of settlement been evacuated. The cost of this, both financially, strategically and emotionally, will be hard to repair. Furthermore, I did not hear a convincing strategy to remove the threat of Hezbollah in the North or Hamas in Gaza. There is widespread acknowledgement of the massive rocket arsenal in Lebanon and the existential threat that this poses to Israel. The residents of the evacuated settlements in the North are overwhelmingly in favour of a return to their homes, however, as long as the sporadic attacks on their communities continue, this is impossible. The refugees from the Otef will not consider returning to their homes until the hostages are returned and their trust in the IDF’s ability to secure the border is restored.

-Economic prospects are grim. The cost of this war, the cost of housing the displaced, the cost of rebuilding the damage, all will be borne by future generations. The decade following the relatively short Yom Kippur war was characterized by a cessation of all government infrastructure investment as all available funds were directed to rebuilding the military. The austerity,inflation and borrowing that this, much longer, conflict is causing will impact the country for decades to come.

This narrative appears erroneous as I look out the window of the Hadera to Ashkelon train. Cranes, in my eyes a symbol of confidence, appear in ever-increasing density the closer we get to Tel Aviv, towers of architectural wizardry are adorned with massive Israeli flags, the words “we will be victorious” are emblazoned on every available surface, is this an act of political propaganda, an attempt to convince a doubting public, a sign of the disconnect between Tel Aviv the the periphery, or is it a genuine expression of confidence in the future? In contrast to these banners of hope are the ubiquitous billboards demanding a return of the hostages. My neighbours in the Otef, the people who bore the immediate brunt of the brutality on 7/10, tell me that they cannot contemplate a return to their lives until all of the hostages are returned. Over and over I heard these traumatized individuals reliving the hours that they had spent waiting to be killed, abandoned by the army, unable to contact their loved ones. Will they ever be able to rebuild their communities, will the loss of family and friends ever heal, how do they regard the calls to “victory”.

Post 7/10 Israel has to reinvent itself. The political left, weakened for decades, has now been decimated. Few are the voices now calling for dialogue with the neighbours. Those who spent years building bonds with residents of Gaza have been forced to question their actions as the information gleaned by those employed in Israel was used to phenomenal results on 7/10. Calls for moderation and normalization of relations between both Israel and Gaza, and Israel and the PA have largely been replaced by a complete mistrust of all Arabs.

The political centre, represented by a myriad of parties, both in and out of government, do not have a discernible strategy, beyond the slogan “together we will win”, there is no defined exit strategy to this war, there is no plan that would see the residents of the north able to return to their communities. There is no credible plan for Gaza and its population. The centre is unable to attract enough support in order to govern without being hijacked by the extreme right and is therefore consistently impotent in terms of initiating meaningful change. Management of the war in Gaza and the hostilities in the north appears disjointed and significantly compromised by political interference.

The right appears to be increasing its support base as the trauma of 7/10 has resulted in many Israelis hardening their stance in regard to the enemy. The left, for decades promoting the establishment of a Palestinian state and opposed to expansion of settlement in the Occupied Territories, struggles to be credible post 7/10.

Militarily, Israel has been humbled by both the guerilla tactics of Hamas and the sophisticated rocket arsenal of Hezbollah. The long held belief in the IDF’s supremacy in the region looks increasingly misplaced. How will Israeli society adjust to living without confidence in the IDF’s ability to safeguard Israel’s borders?

As if the existential threat from next door and the fracturing of Israeli society were not enough to contend with, there are now significant geopolitical challenges for the country. The Israeli response to 7/10 has been portrayed by most Western media as disproportionate and the implications for the population of Gaza have been blamed entirely on Israel. Irrespective of the voracity of these claims the result has been an increase in Israel’s isolation from the majority of the Western world. In the medium to long term the influence that the US has been able to exert in this region is likely to diminish, this can only be bad for Israel.

The demographic realities here also add to the sense of despondency. Birth rates amongst the extreme right are significantly higher than those of the center and left. Migration out of Israel tends to be from the well-educated middle class, again those who lean towards the political centre and left. Thus support for the extreme policies of the right is likely to increase. The birth rate amongst the Arab Israeli population is significantly higher than the average in the Jewish population, thus threatening the future of a Jewish demographic majority here.

Thus the dispassionate observer would struggle to imagine a positive future for this nation.